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Title: Investing/Research and Analysis/Technical Analysis - Calendar Research, Inc. Technical analysis and research focused on the time dimension. Identify periods of emotional excess where mob psychology is manifest in fear and greed, and changes in financial trends are more likely.
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pay attention or pay the offer — thoughts on markets & cetera - christopher carolan
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pay attention or pay the offer
thoughts on markets & cetera - christopher carolan
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Before & After Blog News Bonds Crude Oil Day Trade Editorial Euro Eurodollars General Market Commentary Gold Humor Market Internals Politics Real Estate S&P 500 Sentiment The Long Wave The Spiral Calendar Yen November 2008 S M T W T F S « Oct 1 2345678 9101112131415 16171819202122 23242526272829 30 November 2008 October 2008 September 2008 August 2008 July 2008 June 2008 May 2008 April 2008 March 2008 ATHBOAvid TraderDaily SpeculationsDealbreakerHelge Sundar LoekkeInstapunditNaked CapitalismThe Sentimentals.comTom Drake Send me an email Register Log in
Selling Begets Selling
November 19th, 2008 at 7:56pm · No Comments
At this time there seems no point in trotting out the usual indicators as all that matters is sellers are lined up to sell and their numbers significantly outnumber buyers. Once again my short-term volume oscillator accelerated do the downside in the last hour of trading. As stated before, my interpretation is that it’s so important for these people to sell today, because they know they have still more in the pipeline to sell tomorrow.The CBOE put/call numbers took a jump, and wouldn’t you know, but their website changed how they display the data and my Excel macros have to be rewritten to import the numbers into my spreadsheet. Oh well, it beats those years when I collected the data via phone from the CBOE typing in each 30 minute entry. Ah, to be young again!Gold registered a bearish range-bar reversal on the daily chart. Gold’s going to be a buy at some point, and it’s not a bad idea for long-term holders to be accumulating now. But from a trading standpoint, it looks lower over the near-term. click chart to enlarge click chart to enlarge
→ No CommentsTags: General Market Commentary · Gold · S&P 500
One-Day Wonder?
November 19th, 2008 at 11:04am · 2 Comments
A reader emails to note that yesterday was a rebalancing for the S&P 500 as index funds that received cash in the Anheueser buyout needed to put that money back into the S&P. That rebalancing may have been behind all of the late rally yesterday - and considering the quick return to ugliness today, that line of reasoning makes sense.Readers - please feel free to use the ‘comments’ feature of this blog to share this type of information. There are many readers of this blog with so much useful information that we can all benefit from.
→ 2 CommentsTags: General Market Commentary · S&P 500
That’s Better
November 18th, 2008 at 6:04pm · No Comments
The theme here at “pay attention or pay the offer” the last few days is that we needed to see advancing volume behave better versus declining volume late in the day before we could turn positive on short-term stock direction. I’ve been publishing an intra-day 5-minute chart of my volume oscillator to see if it could lift itself off the mat late in the trading day. Today it finally accomplished that feat, as the low in the oscillator today came in just after 3 PM ET. The rebound wasn’t impressive, but the fact remains that the sellers who had been overwhelming the market closes recently were not around today. It appears safe to get bullish.The 60 and 135 minute eMini charts support that outlook, with a nice modified DMX divergence in the 60 minute chart and raw RSI and tick divergences combining with trend changes to paint the second to last 135 minute bar of the day green as well. The 60 minute chart registered a net-line buy on todays close too. I’m showing the 5-day advancing volume chart too as well, as it adds additional weight to the bull case.Targets? The tops of the channels are as follows; 60 minute at 918, 135 minute at 948 and daily at 1046. The solunar model wind is at the markets back as well. I think we see the 948 number at a minimum. click chart to enlarge click chart to enlarge click chart to enlarge click chart to enlarge
→ No CommentsTags: General Market Commentary · S&P 500
Le Funk
November 17th, 2008 at 9:26pm · 1 Comment
The U.S. stock market is in a funk. By all indications there are still serious sellers working to unload large positions. The first chart this evening, showing one day’s eMini prices and my volume oscillator has the same sharp acceleration in down volume late in the day that we saw on Friday. I interpret these sellers as working large orders all day long and then not having sold enough of their quota are forced to more aggresively hit bids in the final half hour of trading. Stocks cannot rally under these conditions.The second chart shows the solunar model, which is now about to head higher. It’s goint to take more than a favorable seasonal picture to get stocks up, but once these lingering sellers are satisfied, anything will be possible.The standard 60 minute and 135 minute charts are here as well. There are both positive and negative aspects to each chart, but right now for me, the key is watching the advancing and declining volume late in the day for signs that the relentless supply of stock for sale is waning. Watch this space for developments! click chart to enlarge click chart to enlarge click chart to enlarge click chart to enlarge
→ 1 CommentTags: S&P 500
It’s All About Volume II
November 14th, 2008 at 3:49pm · 2 Comments
Here’s a 5 minute chart of the volume oscillator along with the eMini mentioned in the earlier post today. The level of the 2pm low is noted with a horizontal line. Notice how the oscillator has reversed lower AND is at new lows for the day. That is not what bulls want to see. click chart to enlarge
→ 2 CommentsTags: S&P 500
It’s All About Volume
November 14th, 2008 at 2:50pm · No Comments
There’s nothing wrong with both eMini charts below. Stocks seemingly have no technical reason to go lower now, at least based on those indicators. And yet, we have times like this morning when relentless selling dominates. I watch some intra-day oscillators built on advancing and declining volume and no matter how good the rest of the universe of indicators looks, the market can’t go higher without advancing volume having the upper hand over declining volume. Which makes today interesting, because it’s important that it not have a typical down day where my oscillators close on their lows of the day. And so, it was heartening to see these oscillators turn around and head higher today around 2 PM EST.  It’s not that these volume oscillators can’t still close on their lows of the day, but the edge today is now on the bull’s side. click chart to enlarge click chart to enlarge
→ No CommentsTags: Crude Oil · Market Internals · Politics · The Spiral Calendar
An Attempt
November 13th, 2008 at 2:11pm · 4 Comments
Stocks are attempting to make a low here. The eMini took out the October lows and has now rallied over 40 handles from that low. The Tick Cycle-Trap on the 60 minute chart makes the bullish case. I think we’re at a low risk/high reward spot for traders to enter the market on the long side here. click chart to enlarge
→ 4 CommentsTags: General Market Commentary · S&P 500
Books
November 13th, 2008 at 11:50am · No Comments
I have a limited number of new Spiral Calendar books available. The cost is $49 - plus $8 shipping and handling in the U.S. or plus $20. shipping and handling outside of the U.S.
→ No CommentsTags: The Spiral Calendar
Potential
November 12th, 2008 at 9:21pm · 5 Comments
The ingredients for a U.S. stock market low are forming, but it’s not yet clear that the low is nearby. Selling has been intense and consistent, two features that will need to disappear before prices can reverse. And yet, the charts show the modified DMX poised to form a bullish divergence (if prices turn up.) We’ve also arrived at that November Spiral Calendar turn date mentioned in previous reports. Clearly selling intensity and emotion have picked up. Today’s ISEE call/put reading was lower than any since September.The sum of the parts is that I can see how we are close to a low, but there’s no sense in ‘calling’ for a low, or taking any foolishly heroic stand in the face of such relentless selling.  It’s just a time to watch and wait. click chart to enlarge click chart to enlarge
→ 5 CommentsTags: General Market Commentary · S&P 500
Parting Clouds
November 11th, 2008 at 2:10pm · 1 Comment
Are the clouds parting allowing stocks to rally now? The 60 minute chart has a nice Tick Cycle-Trap divergence in place. An hourly close above 906 will provide a net-line buy as well. The eMini is in the vicinity of the 135 minute lower channel (now 902). A move above 910 will bring in buyers if it happens today. click chart to enlarge
→ 1 CommentTags: S&P 500
Still More Deflation
November 11th, 2008 at 11:17am · No Comments
The DJ-AIG commodity index and the daily gold chart both made bearish range-bust reversal bars yesterday. Gold is following through with a minus 18 dollar day today. The gold chart below shows a bear flag formation which projectst o $550 per oz! I’m not sure it can go that low. But $650. is definitely doable. Oil is under $59 today as well. The deflationary liquidation of assets continues. Long-term gold is a buy, but we’re not there yet. The leveraged longs must be forced out before a bottom can be put in. click chart to enlarge
→ No CommentsTags: S&P 500
Vulnerable
November 10th, 2008 at 3:01pm · 2 Comments
The U.S. stock market here is vulnerable to further selling. The 135 minute chart shows a net-line sell at 916.25 if the emini closes below that value today. The daily chart had a net line sell three days ago. The lower channel on the 135 minute chart is at 896. I’m not sure that will if concerted selling is seen. click chart to enlarge click chart to enlarge
→ 2 CommentsTags: S&P 500
← Previous Entries
Selling Begets Selling One-Day Wonder? That’s Better Le Funk It’s All About Volume II It’s All About Volume An Attempt Books Potential Parting Clouds Still More Deflation Vulnerable When Indicators Fail Tired begets Tired Perhaps Tired AC on One-Day Wonder?Jon Eeles on One-Day Wonder?timklahs on Le Funkdeacon31 on It’s All About Volume IIhumble1 on It’s All About Volume IIdeacon31 on An Attemptkumon on An AttemptBearOfNH on An Attempt Amazon.com Widgets
© 2006–2007–2008 pay attention or pay the offer — Cutline by Chris Pearson
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Technical | analysis | and | research | focused | on | the | time | dimension. | Identify | periods | of | emotional | excess | where | mob | psychology | is | manifest | in | fear | and | greed, | and | changes | in | financial | trends | are | more | likely. |
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