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Internet Valley: Sleeping Giants: IBM
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e-commerce: IBM
Insight? 
Behemoths like AT&T, Microsoft
and Walt Disney , ... (are) carving up Web territory
through alliances, acquisitions and well-financed startups.
"GeoCities
deal tests Yahoo's ..." by Dick Satran, Reuters: 29 Jan, 1999
Two days before Reuters
published this article, IBM Enterprise Web Management
team kindly sent us their e-commerce
Report, highlighting important aspects of their
Web-related efforts.
We applaud their impressive efforts, but
it looks to us like the scale of all these undertakings
still don’t compare with the above behemoths'
endeavors.
Sleeping Giant Can Only Dream
Gregory R. Gromov and Louis Gray
Internet Valley, 22 Jan, 1999
According to the recent onslaught of television ads, IBM would
like for all of its customers to be “ready for e-business”. But is IBM itself
ready enough for the Internet age?A few quotes from the IBM history timeline
(post-1980)
Success story
When Apple Computer successfully pioneered its way
into the consumer market with the introduction of the Apple II series of entry-level
machines, IBM, adjusting from decades of manufacturing
business mainframes, successfully answered back in the early 1980’s with its own
personal computers that remain the industry standard.
Subsequent failures
When Microsoft launched its attempt to be a
dominant force in the PC Operating System market with MS-DOS and subsequently Windows, IBM
responded with OS/2 and OS/2 Warp, which while lauded by programmers,
failed due to limited utilization of vast promotional resources under an avalanche of
marketing efforts by Microsoft. To this day, it is still unknown exactly how a small
company powered by a young William Gates first won the order to provide the operating
system for the IBM PC family and a few years later was successful in toppling the industry
giant in its own arena. IBM was eventually forced to discontinue work on OS/2, after
billions of dollars were spent in its development…
In the mid-1990s, following Netscape Communications’
introduction of its Navigator web-browsing software, IBM did nothing to
increase its presence in this fast-growing area. While Microsoft clearly feared for its
future life, and began development on a competitor to Netscape’s Navigator in
Internet Explorer, IBM totally failed to enter the Browser War, instead
choosing to sit back and passive watch the proceedings. While about 3 years ago Gates
declared that Microsoft’s next venue of attack was the entire World Wide Web, IBM
again remained quiet, although it is again still unclear why...
Investor Relations
Partly the result of Microsoft’s charge into this field, and a near-monopoly on
word processing, office productivity suites and operating systems, it is Microsoft who
leads in Web influence Zone among top
computer companies, not IBM.
Microsoft’s
market capitalization to sales ratio (27:1) has become incomparably
higher than IBM’s (2:1), bringing Gates' empire in line with
Internet-related stocks that have seen their market capitalization rise dramatically. IBM’s market capitalization clearly depends
mainly on traditional models including Earnings,
Per
Share and quarterly sales for the company’s valuation hardly signs that the company
is being taken seriously as a future Internet power ready for e-business.
Stocks of Internet-related companies have been the darlings of Wall Street for the past
two years, as companies with low or negative sales margins are given market values
comparable to traditional companies that have dramatically higher sales and earnings
levels. The argument is that while traditional companies are evaluated on their
year-to-year revenue and earnings growth, Internet-related companies, including AOL, Cisco Systems and
to a degree, Microsoft, are rated primarily on their potential for growth in future
e-commerce-dominated market, not only their current level of sales and earnings.
One of the brightest examples to what we have tried to clarify is the investors’
reaction to IBM’s most recent
quarter report announced January 21st. IBM announced another consistent level of
sales, posting $25.1 billion in sales in the fourth quarter of 1998, six percent higher
than the previous year. Earnings were in excess of $2 per share.
Investor Reactions
Did IBM stock
jump on this impressive news? Hardly. The stock instead fell significantly, nearly ten
percent during 1/22/99 -- the day after the
report’s publication, based on investors’ expectations that were not met by
traditional criteria. So it appears that investors apparently do not yet have enough
reasons to apply Internet market criteria to IBM-related financial news.
IBM may continue to tell other companies to join “e-business”, and increase
their levels of Web influence. But IBM cannot be considered among the lofty ranks of
Internet companies until they begin to demonstrate a real effort to increase their own Web
influence levels, at least to the level that Gates promised investors more than three
years ago.
Meanwhile, IBM’s CEO, Louis Gerstner, continues to keep his thoughtful silence...
Wall Street does not yet consider IBM a true force on the
Internet, and our own research into this level of Web
influence has shown IBM to be only
sixth among the top 100 computer-related companies now.
If IBM continues to ignore the Internet, it appears that the
company currently sitting in first place in Web influence, Microsoft, may soon catch IBM
in sales.
This is a proposition IBM should fear with its life as an IT
industry leader, unless of course to give Microsoft the #1 position has
been IBM's unspoken goal for the last twenty years...
Do any of our readers
have any ideas why IBM during the last 20 years has provided Microsoft with
three incredibly valuable gifts: the use of MS-DOS, burial of
OS-2 and WWW ignorance? If you do, then please share it with us.
22 Jan 1999 we wrote
"Fearing that by remaining ignorant
of the scramble for position on the Internet that they would miss out entirely, a number
of immense companies are only now waking up to the idea that they face two choices: Get
Web or Get Out..."
27 Jan 1999 we received the IBM's
e-commerce Report and
28 Jan 1999 -- comprehensive
comments of IBM e-commerce director Scott Gannon
Questions
| Suggestions | The
Report | IBM's Say
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©1995-1999, InternetValley Inc.
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