.htmbrp {color: #333333; text-decoration: none; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helv, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size : 11px;}.htmbrp:link {color: #0000ff; text-decoration: none; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helv, Helvetica, sans-serif}.htmbrp:visited {color: #800080;}.htmbrp:hover, .htmbrp:active {text-decoration: underline; }.htdirp { font-size : 12px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helv, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: #333333;}.htdira:link { color: #3333CC; }.htdira:visited { color: #990099; }.htdira:hover { color: #0066FF; }.htdirh1 { font-size : 20px; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helv, Helvetica, sans-serif; color: #333333; font-weight: bold}/* CSS for aol hat - to hide nav use header_nonav.css or use header_nohat.css to hide completely */div#aol_hat {min-width: 728px; font-size:11px; font-weight:bold; z-index:200; height:30px; margin-bottom:8px; background-color:#CFD9E3;}div#aol_hat form {margin:0; }div#aol_hat ul {float:left; padding:4px 0 0 2px; height:16px; margin:0;}div#aol_hat ul li {padding:0 5px 0 0 !important; border-right:solid 1px #2864B4; line-height:11px; display:inline;}div#aol_hat ul li a {height:12px; display:inline; padding-left:5px; }div#aol_hat_form {padding-top:7px; _padding-top:3px; font-weight:normal; font-size:10px;}div#aol_hat_form input.aol_hat_button {font-size:11px; margin-top:-2px; _margin-top:0px;}div#aol_hat_form input.aol_hat_search {margin-top:-2px; _margin-top:0px; }div#aol_hat ul {padding-top:9px;}#aol_hat ul li.aol_hat_last {border:none;}#aol_hat a {color:#2864B4; background-image:none; text-decoration:none;}#aol_hat a:hover {text-decoration: underline;}#aol_hat div div {height:20px; }#aol_hat_sns div {display:inline;}#aol_hat_sns {width:auto; float:right; height:16px; text-align:right; margin:0 8px 0 0; padding:8px 0 0 0; _padding:7px 0 0 0;}#aol_hat_sns a {text-decoration:none;}#aol_hat_form {width: 300px; float:left; padding:0 0 0 12px; color:#666666;}#aol_hat input.aol_hat_search {width: 118px; height:21px; border:solid 1px #56ba24; vertical-align: middle; margin-right: 2px;}#aol_hat input.aol_hat_button {-moz-border-radius:2.5px; border-radius:2.5px; cursor:pointer; width:59px; height:21px; border:solid 1px #58B926; background-color: #D4F4C5; filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Gradient(gradientType=0,startColorStr=#FBFEF9,endColorStr=#BDEEA6); vertical-align: middle; font: 1.0em Tahoma,Arial,Sans-Serif;}#aol_hat input.aol_hat_button:hover {background-color:#83E839; filter:progid:filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Gradient(gradientType=0,startColorStr=#F9FEF7,endColorStr=#7BED46);}#aol_hat input.aol_hat_button:active {background-color:#C6FFA9; filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Gradient(gradientType=0,startColorStr=#99E576,endColorStr=#F5FCF1);}#content {width:auto;}busclim if (navigator.userAgent.indexOf("AOL") == -1) { var sitedomain="hometown"; var siteState = "OrigUrl=" + location.href; var _sns_hostname_="my.screenname.aol.com"; // var _sns_hostname_ = "tweb33.web.aol.com"; // var _sns_hostport_ = "8000"; // var _sns_hostport_ssl_="8443"; document.write(''); _109778(); document.write('');} htmlAdWH('93212816', '728', '90');  Main _10423(); _11385(); busclim "Business Planning, Decision-making andEthical Aspects of Seasonal Climate Forecasting."Jerry LettreGML1000@aol.comNovember 1999 Table of ContentsIntroduction *Overview *Seasonal Climate Forecasting and its History *Current Research *ENSO Effects on Society and the Economy *Business Aspects *General Business Planning Aspects *General Decision-making Aspects *Ethical Aspects of Seasonal Climate Forecasting *Review of Possible Users of Seasonal ClimateForecasts *Agricultural Users *Energy Users *Retail Users *Summary *Endnotes *Bibliography * IntroductionWeather and climate are a significant influence onsociety and the economy. In addition, year to year differences in the timing, intensityand duration of the rainy/dry and warm/cold seasons have huge impacts onpeople: on our prosperity, on our health, and on our environment.(1) Technologyand research is helping increase our understanding of how different"cycles" in the atmosphere affect the climate (or average weather)for a region during a particular season. From this research, many groups havestarted providing seasonal climate forecasts. Seasonal and inter-annual climateforecasting is forecasting the monthly or seasonal climate for up to a year inadvance or longer. Seasonal climate forecasting has been an interestof mine for the past couple of years. The focus of this paper is to serve as astarting point on the business aspects of using seasonal climate forecasts andissues and the concerns their use bring to the business world. I am interested in how these types of forecastscan be used for many types of businesses. In fact, the relationship of theseforecasts to business is one of the main reasons I decided to pursue and obtainthe analytical skills of a MBA. My intention with this paper is to analyze theplanning, decision-making and ethical aspects concerning implementing seasonalclimate forecasting. In addition, I highlight some of the new businessopportunities that seasonal climate forecasting would offer. OverviewSeasonalClimate Forecasting and its HistorySeasonal climate forecasting is a relatively newdevelopment. To a certain extent it is a benefit of our recent awareness of ElNiño. However, El Niño is not something new. Scientists have been able to traceEl Niño references back to the days of the Spanish conquistadors based onrecords they kept.(2) Meteorologists use the term El Niño SouthernOscillation (ENSO) to describe the overall phenomenon that occurs in and overthe Pacific Ocean. ENSO is a set of complicated atmospheric and pattern changesthat occur over different temporal and spatial scales across the Pacific. Oneof the pattern changes is the El Niño. El Niño is a warming of the ocean in theeastern Pacific. It usually happens around Christmas-time. Hence the name ElNiño, which means "the Christ Child" in Spanish.(3) Sometimes, thewater warms up more than usual. This extreme anomalous warming of the seasurface temperatures (SST) and related atmospheric pressure pattern change hasan effect on regional weather patterns. The regional changes then influenceatmospheric patterns around the world. Now the term El Niño is mostly used forthe strong warm water periods.(4) In contrast, sometimes ocean temperatures aremuch cooler than normal (La Niña) west of the Peruvian Coast and at other timesthe SSTs in this region are between the extremes. The slow changing oceantemperatures and its effect on atmospheric patterns influence the weather andthe seasonal climate worldwide. It is only over the past 20 to 40 years thatmeteorologists, climatologists and oceanographers have focused on understandingthe connection between the oceans and weather patterns. These connections arecalled teleconnections. The research in these patterns has increased greatlysince the El Niño of 1982-1983. That El Niño caught many by surprise and aneffort was set forth to better understand the relationship between the oceanand the atmosphere.Weather and climate is interwoven into the socialand economic fabric of life on this planet. Being able to forecast the generalseasonal climate for a certain region can save money by mitigating costs or canpresent opportunities for other groups to take a proactive stance. Seasonal climate forecasts have only been recentlyavailable to the public in America. Some of the first forecasts were maderegionally for people in Peru about 15 years ago. The El Niño of 1982-83 causedmajor floods in Peru. By late 1983, experts determined that ocean temperatureswould be near normal for the growing season. This information was incorporatedinto planning for the growing season and the growers reaped a successfulharvest.(5) CurrentResearchENSO is just one "cycle" of the ocean,atmosphere and sun that scientists are researching. Some other large scaleforces of nature that appear to influence the global weather patterns includesunspot cycles, winds in the stratosphere and the North Atlantic Oscillation toname a few. All these cycles and more interact with each other at manydifferent temporal and spatial scales. These interactions are also the subjectof research. ENSOEffects on Society and the EconomyD. James Baker, a National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA) official recently stated the following about the economiceffects from El Niño and La Niña. "The cycling between the warmer El Niñosand colder La Niñas can alter temperatures and rain to such an extent that theysignificantly disrupt U.S. agriculture, commercial fishing, tourism and manydiverse businesses and industries. We're finding out that the 1998-99 La Niñamay cause U.S. agricultural losses of more than $2 billion, which tops the $1.5Billion in agricultural damage from the 1997-98 El Niño cycle. In addition, the1997-98 El Niño that brought a mild winter to the northern Midwest and heavyrains to the Southwest and West Coast caused U.S. energy consumers to spend$2.2 billion less on oil and gas, but then cost consumers and farmers $3billion in lost crops and agricultural production."(6) Another study by respected Climatologist StanleyChangnon expands on the economic and societal effects of the El Niño of1997-98. He summarized the following national "benefits and losses"stemming from that El Niño: Losses: Human lives lost = 189Economic losses and costs = $4.2-$4.5 billionBenefits: Human lives saved = 850Economic gains: =$19.6-$19.9 billion(7) Business AspectsOne can see from just the above examples thattrying to understand the effects of climate on society and economy is acomplicated and arduous project. In any case, there are many opportunities forbusinesses to use seasonal climate forecasting. For most applications, theopportunities include mitigating expenses or the information can be used for betterplanning or decision-making. The use of seasonal climate forecasts is new andis in the infancy stages of being used for a variety of businesses. I willanalyze several specific uses later in this paper. First, I would like toreview general business-related aspects of seasonal climate forecasting. GeneralBusiness Planning AspectsMany weather and climate sensitive businesses useactual climate data. By using this information, average weather for specifictemporal and space scales can be incorporated into business planning. Forinstance, agricultural interests may use the climatological average of the lastdate of freezing weather to determine when it would be safe to start plantingcertain crops. Many retail stores use climate information to determine stockneeds for particular stores at certain times around the country. Properapplication of seasonal climate forecasts could assist in the planning process.Farmers could use seasonal climate forecasts to determine if they should storeadditional water for irrigation or when to plant certain crops. Utilitycompanies would also use seasonal climate forecasts for planning seasonal fuelpurchases or to assist in determining when to perform major equipment repairs. GeneralDecision-making AspectsDecision-making goes hand-in-hand with planning.Significant research is being conducted on how seasonal climate forecastsaffect decisions. NOAA has a lead role in this research. In fact,decision-making research is outlined as one of their goals. NOAA's goal (one ofmany) is to deliver climate services and assess socioeconomic impacts. NOAA isengaged in making improvements in climate prediction useable by decision-makersto incorporate in their practices.(8) In addition, NOAA's Economics and Human Dimensionsprogram solicits research aimed at understanding how social and economicsystems are currently influenced by fluctuations in short-term (seasons toyears) and how human behavior can be (or why it may not be) affected based oninformation about variability in the climate system. The group's attempt is todetermine how seasonal climate information can be incorporated into existingdecision-making frameworks to affect adjustment/adaptation and how socialand/or economic factors influence the use of climate information in thedecision-making process context.(9) Research from the Climate Diagnostics Centeroutlines several possible barriers to the use of seasonal forecasts concerningthe decision-making process. An incomplete list includes:a. Forecast is not "accurate" enough,i.e., need at least 75% event accuracy.b. Fluctuation of successive forecasts("waffling").c. Procedures for acquiring knowledge and makingand implementing decisions, which incorporate climate information, have notbeen clearly defined. d. Desired information not provided (e.g., numberof warm days, regional data).e. History of previous forecasts not available.Validation statistics of previous forecasts not available.(10) A press release from NOAA on October 26, 1999addresses the accuracy issue. John J. Kelley, Jr., director of the NationalWeather Service, remarked "Over the past decade, we have improved theforecasting of La Niña and El Niño so that we can now predict these events andtheir expected climatic impacts on different regions with some 70 to 80 percentaccuracy a year before they occur."(11) EthicalAspects of Seasonal Climate ForecastingEthical concerns abound with seasonal climateforecasting. Overall, most people feel the government has a socialresponsibility to convey these forecasts to everyone. The main problem withthis philosophy is that users (real or potential) of the information would notfully understand the forecasts, their shortcomings and advantages. In addition,many different user groups obtain varying levels of detail concerning aparticular season's forecast from newspapers, TV or professional journals.Indeed, when covering climate related press releases, the media frequentlyremoves caveats related to the probabilistic nature of climate forecasts,implying a level of certainty now warranted by the facts.(12) A number ethical issues deal with how the end userdeals with a forecast. It also depends on whether the user is a private companyor a public organization. A private or commercial business would tend to useproven information to help increase profits. The challenge of facilitatingapplications in the public sector is more complex: involving a more diverse setof decision-makers representing different, and sometimes competing, policyinterests. In general, the goals of public-sector actions are more complex andindirect, influenced as they are by politics, bureaucracy, lack of clearauthority, institutional rigidity, fear of failure, and competing andconflicting demands on public resources. The very nature of the publicenterprise, then, can present numerous barriers to the application ofshort-term climate forecasts, including among others: political considerations,existing bureaucratic structure and institutional rigidity, competing demandsfor common resources (e.g. water), and broad public consequences offailure.(13) It is clear to see that continuous dialog betweenpotential users and forecasters is needed. The research community for seasonalclimate forecasting realizes this and is currently receiving funding to addressthe social and economic aspects of seasonal climate forecasts. How people andbusinesses interact with this information is important to researchers and is afocus of study at several universities. Another point is that weather andclimate for many seasonal climate forecast users is only a part of whatinfluences their business. A number of potential users like energy oragricultural interests have several different types of social, economic andethical influences that also end up affecting pricing and costs. Reviewof Possible Users of Seasonal Climate Forecasts AgriculturalUsers Weather and climate are very important toagriculture. An agriculture workshop in 1997 explored the relationship betweenclimate and agriculture focusing on how to incorporate climate variabilityinformation into a number of agriculture-related systems. The basis for thisworkshop was that many critical decisions must be made several months orseasons before the impacts of weather are realized, putting at risk largeinvestments in resources applied to the crop. The report referenced studiesthat confirmed some crops are noticeably affected by climate variability.Especially noteworthy was the discovery that corn yields were high during La Niñayears and low in subsequent years. The group acknowledged research that themagnitude of ENSO influence on corn yield variability was more than $200million, or 26% of the annual average of corn produced by Alabama, Georgia,Florida and South Carolina. ENSO also appears to affect annual soybean, peanutand tobacco production in the same region, but not to the levels it does forcorn. The group determined that research is needed to assess the likely impactsof climate variability and to facilitate improved decision-making to reduceunwanted impacts and reduce risks. They also determined that significantforethought is needed regarding the role of climate forecast centers, possibleforecast products and uncertainties associated with the information.(14)Many other concerns confront this industry duringthe growing season. These include water, nutrients, soil structure, marketcompetition and policies and they all interact with the growing season climate.Internationally, policies bring an interesting twist to the agriculturebusiness. Crop insurance and the United States government help farmers weatherthe effects of nature on their crops. This enables domestic farmers to usuallystay in business after a bad growing year. Many other countries around theworld do not have such a safety net. In these cases, farmers close the farmsand move to the cities. This has occurred in Brazil as an example. Differentsocieties may cause different outcomes, even with accurate forecasts. AnAmerican farmer may ignore a forecast to a certain extent because of the aidprovided by government and insurance companies, while a grower in anothercountry would tend to heed the forecast (if he has access to it). Seasonal climate forecasting can be quite usefulfor agricultural interests. However, much research, communication andunderstanding is needed to maximize the benefits of seasonal climate forecasts.Energy UsersEnergy providers of natural gas, oil andespecially electricity are major users of weather forecasts. On a daily basis,these forecasts are used to help these companies plan energy usage and to helpoperations run efficiently. A dependable seasonal climate forecast can alsoprove itself valuable and save a significant amount of time and money. Energyusers of seasonal climate forecasts include utility companies and some of theircustomers like large businesses and institutions. How could utility companies use seasonal climateforecasts? Many utilities need to commit to certain amounts of fuel well beforethe heating season begins. One example would be EnergyNorth, a natural gascompany in southern New Hampshire. Natural gas is shipped by pipeline fromsoutheastern sections of the United States to New England. In the past,EnergyNorth has faced a colder than expected winter and therefore ended up witha shortage of natural gas. When this happens, the company depends on trucks andtrains to bring natural gas to the region.(15) This is followed by a subsequentincrease in natural gas costs which are then passed on to the customers of thecompany. Utilities could save money by using seasonal or monthly information.Proper use of an accurate seasonal climate forecast could significantly lessenthe chances of a shortage and thus save the company money.Large institutions and businesses also have anopportunity to save money with seasonal climate forecasts. For instance, aresearch project by meteorology students and faculty at Northern IllinoisUniversity ended up saving the university an estimated $500,000 in natural gascosts for the winter of 1997-98. The group used several methods to aid inmaking the decision on whether to lock in a price early or to ride out themarket. Climate profiles of the local region, the historical comparison ofnatural gas usage and the SST ENSO model were tools developed to assist in thenatural gas purchasing decision. In future years, they expect the seasonalclimate forecast provided by the Climate Prediction Center will be incorporatedin the purchasing decisions. Frequent communication was discovered to be one ofthe most important aspects of this research. The report stated that throughfrequent communication, all parties became more aware of how, when and whatform of climate information could be used by the weather-sensitivedecision-maker. This continuous interaction between students, faculty, andusers is believed to be one of the most important reasons that this or anyuser-service project develops successful results.(16) For Northern IllinoisUniversity, the research determined that above normal conditions were expectedfor the season and therefore the plant manager rode the market and purchasedthe natural gas when needed instead of locking into a price. By the way, theability to exercise such an option is a byproduct of deregulation in theindustry that occurred less than 10 years ago. Retail UsersThis is probably the least researched area of howweather and climate affect a specific business sector. Researchers have focusedfor obvious reasons on the energy and agriculture industries, but retailbusiness is a large part of our economy and is greatly affected by weather andclimate. In fact, it seems that almost every news story on retail businesstrends of a past month or quarter mentions the climate extreme of the periodand how it affected the overall retail business marketplace. Seasonal climate forecasting can be a tool forretail business. Consumers tend to buy on the spur of the moment. In the past,retail business couldn't purchase most goods fast enough to take advantage ofprofitable opportunities caused by weather or seasonal climate extremes. Byusing seasonal climate forecasts, retailers could plan their weather-sensitivepurchases to add extra revenues and profits to the business. For example,during the past summer, retailers could have stocked up with fans and airconditioners due to the expected warmer than normal conditions for theNortheast. Another example would be what happened during the La Niña of thewinter of 1998-99. Many La Niña winters have brought ice storms from theNortheast to the lower Mississippi River Valley. Last year, during the icestorm in the Northeast, many wholesalers of ice melting products depletedinventories and it took a week to replenish. Because of the shortage, manyretail stores ended up out of stock and with unhappy customers. The winter of1999-2000 will be another La Niña winter. This means ice storms are once againpossible from New England southwestward to the lower Mississippi River Valley.A manufacturer of ice melting products would be smart to strategically placemore of their product in this region as to take advantage of opportunities forcustomer satisfaction and additional profits. Some has been written about how weather affectsconsumer behavior. An article written by economist Michael Niemira commentsthat the weather-consumption channel is complex. He states that weather andclimate influences on consumer spending fall into three different categoriesand that each has a different marketing/planning strategy attached to it.(17)The first involves shorter-term weather, while the second involves seasonaldemand for products and the last reflects inter-annual to annual timeframes.Regular weather forecasts and seasonal climate forecasts could be used to helpplan the categories. Summary Just about everything goes through some sort ofcycle. For some groups, like people and animals, the cycle is birth, growth,and death. It is obvious that the weather and the climate have cycles on all kindsof temporal and spatial scales. Even businesses and industries have cycles orlifecycles. In fact, Ichak Adizes wrote a book titled Corporate Lifecycles -How and Why Corporations Grow and Die and What to Do About It. It is safe to say that the seasonal climateforecasting business is just starting. As a comparison, the business ofproviding seasonal climate forecasts is now at the stage the personal computerindustry was at during the very late 1970s. What does all this mean? In one word: Opportunity.There are plenty of opportunities with this information to save money, to planbetter and make better weather-related decisions. In most cases, this will helpmitigate costs by preventing money from being needlessly spent or used inoptimizing an investment. On the other side, there is also opportunity formeteorological companies to market this information to business. Theopportunity is easy to see. But understanding is a key issue that needs to beaddressed by all concerned parties. Most of the understanding needs to be fromthe provider of the information. The forecaster needs to understand what theuser needs and wants. The forecaster needs to understand how and why seasonalclimate forecasts can affect company plans and business decision-making. Inaddition, the forecaster should know about the ethical ramifications of theseforecasts. In fact, a recent book titled Making Climate Forecasts Matterappears to address some of these very concerns. The forecaster would also needto understand some the other weather cycles (like the North AtlanticOscillation) that seem to have an effect on a season's climate. Business wise, the business model for a seasonalclimate forecasting company would have similarities to the weather forecastingoperations of today but would be different in several other ways. Today'sweather forecasting business adds value by improving the data provided by thegovernment and then resells the information to its clients, usually on a dailybasis. A seasonal climate forecasting business would add value in a similarfashion. However, with seasonal climate forecasts, a different approach isneeded for the client interface. The difference is for seasonal climateforecasting is that the transfer of information process needs to be very clientoriented and consultative. A potential added value to the client would be tocorrelate their sales/usage data with climate records to assist in optimizinginformation from the forecasts. In addition, educating the client is veryimportant. All clients need to understand the benefits that the forecastsprovide for their particular industry. They also need to be informed on whatthe forecasts can and can't do. These processes can only be accomplished if thecommunication between the user and forecaster is realized to be first priorityof the business relationship. There are few meteorological operations in thiscountry that have started providing these seasonal climate forecasts to thebusiness world. The forecasts will steadily improve as computing powerincreases and researchers and forecasters increase their understanding of therelationships between the oceans, our atmosphere and the sun. Endnotes1 http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/climate/tutorial,12 October 1999.2 David Laskin, Braving the Elements,(Anchor Books, 1996), p. 219.3 Reports to the Nation on Our ChangingPlanet. El Niño and Climate Prediction University Corporation forAtmospheric Research, (Spring 1994): 6.4 Reports to the Nation on Our ChangingPlanet. El Niño and Climate Prediction University Corporation forAtmospheric Research, (Spring 1994): 6.5 Reports to the Nation on Our ChangingPlanet. El Niño and Climate Prediction University Corporation forAtmospheric Research, (Spring 1994): 22.6 http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s300.htm,27 October 1999.7 Stanley A. Changnon, "Impacts of1997-98 El Niño - Generated Weather in the United States," Bulletin of theAmerican Meteorological Society 80 (September 1999): 1819-27.8 http://www.cdc.nooa.gov/Seasonal/noaarole.html,10 August 1999.9 http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/MPE/EconHD/Info98.html,11 May 1998. 10 http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/review9/overview/chpt6,26 September 1999.11 http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/300.htm,27 October 1999. 12 News and Notes, "ScientistsTackle Question of Who Benefits from Climate Forecasts," Bulletin of theAmerican Meteorological Society 80 (May 1999): 1819-27.13 http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/IRI/ENSIG/ISH7/Issue7.html,Dr. E.S. Sarachik and Eileen Shea, "End-to-End Seasonal-to-InterannualPrediction," August 1999.14 http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~legler/AG_REPRT.htm,Jim Jones, David M. Legler, Gerald F. Arkin, James W. Hanson, "AgricultureSector Findings, SE Regional Workshop, June 25-27, 1997," 11 October 1999.15 Christopher Kean, Licensed MasterPlumber, "Interview," 8 October 1999.16 David Changnon, Tamera Creech,Nathan Marsili, William Murrel and Michael Saxinger "Interactions with aWeather-Sensitive Decision-Maker: A Case Study Incorporating ENSO informationinto a Strategy for Purchasing Natural Gas," Bulletin of the AmericanMeteorological Society 80 (June 1999): 1117-25.17 Michael P. Niemira, "How DoesWeather Affect Consumer Behavior? Let Me Count the Ways," Chain Store Age,February 1997. BIBLIOGRAPHYAdizes, Ichak. Corporate Lifecycles - How andWhy Corporations Grow and Die and What to Do About It. New Jersey: PrenticeHall, 1988.Changnon, David, Tamera Creech, Nathan Marsili,William Murrel and Michael Saxinger "Interactions with a Weather-SensitiveDecision-Maker: A Case Study Incorporating ENSO information into a Strategy forPurchasing Natural Gas," Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society80 (June 1999): 1117-25.Changnon, Stanley A, "Impacts of 1997-98 ElNiño - Generated Weather in the United States," Bulletin of the AmericanMeteorological Society 80 (September 1999): 1819-27.http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~legler/AG_REPRT.htm,Jim Jones, David M. Legler, Gerald F. Arkin, James W. Hanson, "AgricultureSector Findings, SE Regional Workshop, June 25-27, 1997," 11 October 1999.http://iri.ldeo.columbia.edu/climate/tutorial,12 October 1999http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/review9/overview/chpt6,26 September 1999.http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/Seasonal/noaarole.html,10 August 1999.http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories/s300.htm,27 October 1999.http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/IRI/ENSIG/ISH7/Issue7.html,Dr. E.S. Sarachik and Eileen Shea, "End-to-End Seasonal to Inter-annualPrediction," August 1999http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/MPE/EconHD/Info98.html,11 May 1998. Laskin, David. Braving the Elements. NewYork Anchor Books, 1996..News and Notes, "Scientists Tackle Questionof Who Benefits from Climate Forecasts," Bulletin of the AmericanMeteorological Society 80 (May 1999): 1819-27.Niemira, Michael P. "How Does Weather AffectConsumer Behavior? Let Me Count the Ways," Chain Store Age, February 1997.Reports to the Nation on Our Changing Planet. ElNiño and Climate Prediction. University Corporation for AtmosphericResearch, 1994.Stern, Paul C., and William E. Easterling,Editors. Making Climate Forecasts Matter. National Academy Press, 1999.var site="sm3sundog" |
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