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StockmarketTimer.com - Succesful Market Timing strategies for index funds investors Goto Menu. Our Market Timing Indicator (MTI) gained 33% for 2007. Signup for FREE Access and get our signals to each services on selected days of the week. Market Daily Percent Change  Last Quote 10/10/08 13:59pmNDX1269.80-5.30DJI8451.19-128.00SPX899.22-10.70 MARKET COMMENTARY: for Monday, 13-Oct-2008 Commentary posted 10-Oct-2008 at 10:00 CTFriday's Action:Stocks swerved above and below the flatline in a frenzied finish thatsaw the Dow close with only modest losses for the day but devastatinglosses for the week. Major overseas markets posted significantly lowerresults for Friday. London's FTSE was down 8.85%, Frankfurt's DAX closeddown 7.01%, and Paris' CAC finished down 7.73%. Japan's Nikkei was down9.62%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed down 7.19%, and Sydney's AllOrdinaries Index finished down 8.20%. Market breadth was negative, withNYSE declining issues over advancing issues by 1.95, and up volume overdown volume by 1.52; Nasdaq declining issues over advancing issues by3.01, and down volume over up volume by 1.14. Leading sectors wereBanks, +8.47% and Transport, +3.82%. Laggards were Natural Gas, -7.21%and Commodities, -5.96%. Nasdaq 100 futures closed 10.50 pts higher tosettle at 1282.50, while the S&P's settled -21.50 pts lower at 891.00.Weekly Recap:The major averages plunged in dramatic fashion amid concerns about theeconomy and a prevailing sense of uncertainty about government effortsto unclog the credit market.More Americans unexpectedly signed contracts in August to purchasepreviously owned homes as mounting foreclosures pushed down prices. Theindex of pending home resales rose 7.4%, the most since October 2001,after falling 2.7% in July. The increase is the fourth so far this year. Source: RTTNews.comInitial jobless claims fell to 478,000 from the previous week's revisedfigure of 498,000. The less volatile four-week moving average rose to482,500 from the previous week's revised average of 474,250. Continuingclaims rose to 3.659 million from the preceding week's revised level of3.603 million. With the increase, continuing claims rose to theirhighest level since June of 2003. Source: RTTNews.comWholesale inventories rose twice as much as forecast in August assales dropped by the most in more than a year. The 0.8% increasefollowed a revised increase of 1.5% in July. Sales dropped 1%, the mostsince January 2007, led by declines at auto and hardwaredistributors. Source: RTTNews.comImport prices declined 3% in September, steeper than the 2.6% drop inAugust. The decline reflected a 9% fall in petroleum import prices and a0.9% drop in non-petroleum import prices. On a year-over-year basis,import prices were up 14.5%. Export prices fell at a 1% rate, adding tothe 1.7% drop in the previous month. On a year-over-year basis, exportprices climbed 6.8%. Source: RTTNews.comThe trade deficit for August narrowed to $59.1 billion from a downwardlyrevised deficit of $61.3 billion for July. Exports declined $3.4 billionto $164.7 billion compared to an $5.5 billion decline in imports to$223.9 billion.  Source: RTTNews.comFor the week, the Dow lost -18.2%, the S&P 500 was -18.2% lower,while the Nasdaq finished down -15.3%. Next week the economic calendarhas several market-moving reports, including the Producer Price Index,Consumer Price Index, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, and HousingStarts and Building Permits. The FOMC will release its Beige Book, onWednesday.A New Auto-Trade Partner for Peak Investing:Peak Investing is pleased to announce the addition of TradeKing as an auto-trade partner. SmartMoney Magazine rated TradeKing the "BestDiscount Online Broker" for the second year in a row. The SmartMoneysurvey was based on commissions, interest rates, mutual funds,investment products, banking amenities, trading tools, research andcustomer service.TradeKing is making a special auto-trade offer for Peak Investing members:AUTOTRADE WITH PEAK INVESTING FOR JUST $4.95 PLUS $0.65 PER CONTRACT.* Sign up now, and we'll make this sweet deal even sweeter with a $50 signing bonus.** The Peak Investing site includes our successful credit spread strategy, coveredcall writing, S&P 500 Forecasting and our proprietary Options Volatility Analysis.And now with Auto-Trading, its the best options site on the web. Sign-up now for your Free Trial and receive both our Weekly and monthly credit spread recommendations. (Please read ourDisclosure statement.)Learn more......The COT Report:The latest Commitments of Traders report from the CFTC shows thatCommercial Hedgers sold 15,954 S&P 500 futures contracts last week tobring their net short position to -40,348 contracts. Large traders werenet long 58,898 contracts, with Small Traders net short the remaining-18,550, the so-called "weak hands". For the Nasdaq 100 futures,Commercials sold 3,689 contracts last week to bring their net longposition to 1,157 contracts. Small Traders were net short -555 contractsin the Nasdaq. Commercial action in Dow futures saw the smart money buy85 contracts to bring their net short position to -1,901 contracts.Commercial Hedgers were better sellers in the S&P's last week, whileSmall Traders were better buyers, a short term bearish sign. Commercialsremain net short in two of the three index futures, and that has been anintermediate term bearish sign historically.The Short Term Outlook; 1-5 Days:Friday's price action was mixed, so we don't have a directional bias for Monday.The Hourly Charts:The OEX made a higher low on Friday, perhaps a sign that a bounce is ahead. We'll see....  Futures Market Focus:Crude fell 10.3%, or $8.89, to close Friday's session at $77.70 per barrel,the first time crude has closed below $78 since mid-September 2007. LastFriday, crude closed at $93.88 per barrel, so the week's loss comes in at$16.18, or 17.2%. Monday's Look-Ahead:The 60-mn SPX chart below shows the StochRSI indicator in the SELLzone. For Monday, resistance for the S&P's comes in at 912 and then922. Support lies at 870 and then 860.  Monday's Reports: The Treasury Budget is due at 2:00 PM ET. Monday's earnings calendar can be found HERE.The Intermediate Term Outlook; 2-6 Weeks:The COMPQ reversed higher on a spike in volume, a positive sign. Charts and data appearing in today's column are courtesy of:StockCharts.comFutureSource.comSchaeffersResearch.com Site Navigation Home Page CommentariesAbout Services Basic Service Swing TradeMember Login Basic Service Swing TradeSubscriptions Free Acess Order Form Change SubscriptionAbout Our Site Who We Are Contact Us Site MapOther Stuff Favorite Books Associated Links PeakInvesting.comCopyright ©2008, Disclaimer,Privacy,Last Modified2008-09-21, This site proudly conforms to W3C Standards_uacct = "UA-2364220-1";urchinTracker(); |
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