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Title: Investing/Commodities and Futures/Forex/Chats and Forums - ClockworkFX A forex information portal and community with daily forex market analysis, live trading signals, live chat, forex education, and trading forum.
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DailyFX Currency Trading News by DailyFX Guest Speaker Andrew Spanton's Technical Recap See the article... Euro Rally Likely Before Next Collapse The recent collapse in the EURUSD is probably the beginning of a larger decline that could reach 1.35 in the next few months. Still, markets do not move... Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, August 28 Short term patterns indicate that the US dollar is likely to weaken on balance for the rest of the week. Dollar May Finally Break Its Range With The GDP Release (Forex Video) After two weeks of congestion, the US 2Q GDP revision numbers will bring volatility and the potential for renewed trends. Carry Trade In Last Throes Tag it:        Sunday, 06 January 2008 GBP/JPY and More
I realize the recent drop in g/j has been quite fierce, but putting the
long-term picture into perspective, a trip to 210 and then 200 medium
term isn't a fantasy. Back in September of 98 this pair fell from 232
to 193 in just a month. Further, one can hardly ignore the multi-month
head and shoulder top on the daily/weekly chart which subsequently is
also seen on the Dow Jones currently (although the Dow has yet to
penetrate the neckline). Also troubling is the fact that the Dow closed
at the lows today (neckline) after having one of the worst weeks in
many many years. We also see the DAX and Nikkei 225 looking extremely
heavy here. Ironic is the fact Greenspan was touting ARM loans back in
2004, and in early 2007 he was one of the first to start tossing around
the R word (recession).
Although it may seem like good buying opportunities, you have the dig
deeper and understand the dynamics involved behind it. The carry trade
has created significant artificial demand of carry-able assets around
the globe forcing normal asset value appreciation into bubble-like
magnitudes. When recession fears emerge and equity markets look
extremely top-heavy, central banks begin their tightening cycles.
History shows us that the carry trade ends when this happens. We're
already seeing it in the US, UK, Canada, and soon in Euro-zone. The ECB
is currently facing a catch-22 with unrelenting near-term inflation,
but also the softer growth numbers we've been seeing in the last few
months and particularly the effects of the stronger euro on their
exporters. So despite Trichet's hawkishness, I feel EU's downside risks
to growth will be greater than the upside risk to inflation forcing
them to back out of a corner and tighten. With such a large amount of
money tied up in carry trades, and implied volatility relatively still
mild right now, this could be a recipe for disaster. The carry trade
may be in its last throes, for now...
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