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MAXfunds.com | A better way of looking at mutual funds. @import "/modules/cck/content.css";@import "/modules/node/node.css";@import "/modules/poll/poll.css";@import "/modules/system/defaults.css";@import "/modules/system/system.css";@import "/modules/user/user.css";@import "/themes/maxfunds/style.css"; _uacct = "UA-1321668-1";urchinTracker(); window.onload = function() { var domTT_styleClass = 'domTTClassic'; var domTT_postponeActivation = true; var domTT_documentLoaded = true;}function loadMenu() { var url="fundoengine/fundoengine_fundoqueries.php?a=3&b="+menu+"&redirect=1"; xmlHttp=GetXmlHttpObject() if (xmlHttp==null) { alert("Browser does not support HTTP Request") return; } xmlHttp.onreadystatechange=getMenu; xmlHttp.open("GET",url,true) xmlHttp.send(null);}   home MAXUNIVERSITY OUR FAVORITE FUNDS FUND-O-MATIC FUND SCREENER BETA October 14, 2008What is maxfunds.com? Since 1999, MAXfunds.com has offered innovative and useful ratings, tools, research, and commentary exclusively for mutual fund investors.   1. PIMCO Total Return A (PTTAX)2. Dodge & Cox Stock Fund (DODGX)3. Fairholme Fund (FAIRX)4. Permanent Portfolio Fund (PRPFX)5. Fidelity Balanced Fund (FBALX)SEE THE TOP 100 LEARN MOREUSER LOGIN LOST PASSWORD Follow the money, then go the other way. Sign up for your free trial today and receive MAX's 2008 Hotsheet, our list of five select mutual funds that MAXadvisor analysts predict are poised for super-charged performance this year.POWERFUND PORTFOLIOS RECENT UPDATES:10/10 - Trades in Low Minimum Portfolio10/10 - Trades in Daredevil Portfolio10/10 - Trades in Aggressive Growth Portfolio new Autocomplete("fundobasicinput1", function() { return "/funds/fundoengine/fundoengine_dynamicsearch.php?q=" + this.value; }); FUND SCREENER -- Choose -- All Mutual Funds Large Cap Value Mid Cap Value Small Cap Value Large Cap Growth Mid Cap Growth Small Cap Growth Blend Telecom Technology Financial Services Precious Metals Natural Resources Healthcare Utilities Convertibles Real Estate U.S. Balanced Intl. 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YES NO new Autocomplete("fundobasicinput1", function() { return "/funds/fundoengine/fundoengine_dynamicsearch.php?q=" + this.value; }); BASIC SEARCH -- Choose -- All Mutual Funds Large Cap Value Mid Cap Value Small Cap Value Large Cap Growth Mid Cap Growth Small Cap Growth Blend Telecom Technology Financial Services Precious Metals Natural Resources Healthcare Utilities Convertibles Real Estate U.S. Balanced Intl. Diversified Global Global Balanced Emerging Market Japan Asia Latin America Long/Short Convertible Bond Foreign Bond Government Bond High Yield Bond Investment Grade Bond Municipal Bond Shorter-Term Bond Mortgage Bond Very Short-Term Bond Alphabetically Highest MAXrating Lowest MAXrating Long-Term Winners Best YTD Return Best 1 Year Return Best 3 Year Return Best 5 Year Return Long-Term Losers Worst YTD Return Worst 1 Year Return Worst 3 Year Return Worst 5 Year Return Least Expensive Most Expensive Highest MAXoutlook Lowest MAXoutlook Exclude load funds? YES NO Exclude high min. investment? YES NO  1. Choose as many search criteria as you'd like by clicking on these boxes: FUND CATEGORY FUND STYLE FUND TYPE EXPENSES PERFORMANCE AVAILABILITY MANAGEMENT RISK PORTFOLIO 2.CLICK ON AN 'X' TO REMOVE A CRITERIA. ADD A CRITERIA BY CHOOSING MORE SEARCH OPTIONS ABOVE. VIEW YOUR RESULTS IN THE TABLE BELOW. SORT BY: MAXRATING MAXRATING BESTMAXRATING WORSTALPHABETICALLYCATEGORYTYPE (ETF, NO-LOAD, ETC.)EXPENSE RATIO HIGHESTEXPENSE RATIO LOWESTPERF. BEST 5-YRPERF. BEST 3-YRPERF. BEST 1-YRPERF. BEST ytdPERF. WORST 5-YRPERF. WORST 3-YRPERF. WORST 1-YRPERF. WORST YTD LEARN MORE ABOUT:401K PlannerPowerfund PortfoliosMAXadvisor Private ManagementTALK TO MAX:CONTACT USASK MAXSUGGEST A LINKFund-O-MaticALL FUNDS A-ZRSS SUBSCRIBE:         Watch Out Death Spiral In Risky Stocks Takes Spotlight From....Death Spiral In Safe Bonds Submitted by Jonas Ferris on Sat, 10/11/2008 - 19:44. With the Dow falling a few hundred points every single stinking day, you may not have noticed the carnage in almost all bond categories other than U.S. Government bonds. The nightly news doesn't show bond prices. Our guess is that this is what is really keeping some investors up at night.Sure, the 40%+ drop from the peak in major market indexes is stunning, as is the performance of so many 'value' funds that seem to be falling faster than 'growth' funds did in the last bear market. Case in point Vanguard Capital Value Fund (VCVLX) is now down over 50% since the begining of 2008 after a manager change led to increased stakes in Russian stocks - the stock market than now routinely is shut down from panic selling - and energy picks, snapped up at pre-commodity bubble crash prices of course. Wellington Management Company was founded in 1928 so would think they would have learned their lesson about crashes...But stocks are stocks, and investors almost have to expect 20%, 30%, even 40% drops every few decades - given the long-term upside and potential for one-year double-digit gains, it would be foolish to expect only big upside and no downside. Bonds, on the other hand, are for adding diversification, stability, and regular income. You'll never get rich, but you wont lose much either. That is, until the great debt panic of 2008, which in its most recent form has hit safe debt categories like commercial paper (short term corporate borrowing), investment grade bonds, convertible bonds, and perhaps most stunningly - municipal bonds. Municipal bonds are bonds issued by state and local governments. Some bonds not backed by the full taxing authority of the state are higher risk, but between the power to tax and the insurance that is frequently behind muni bonds, actually losing money by default is a fairly rare event. Muni bonds are typically sold to wealthier risk-averse investors who want steady, tax exempt income.This is why the 10%-40% hits in muni bond funds in recent weeks is so startling. Over the last thirty days or so a conservative unleveaged fund like Vanguard Insured Long-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Investor Shares (VILPX), which "Invests primarily in high-quality municipal securities." and "Holds bonds covered by insurance guaranteeing the timely payment of principal and interest." is down 10%. Take a gander at more aggressive leveraged closed end muni bond funds - popular with brokers who sell them at IPO - and you'll find dozens in which the underlying holdings of the fund are down 20%-30% - which when you add in the widening discount to fund price means investors are seeing hits of around 50%. Recently some of these funds are moving up and down (mostly down) 10%-20% per day, much like leveraged junk bond funds have done of late. California muni bonds are acting like emerging market bonds.It's bad enough when Internet fund drops like a rock but when 'safe' assets like your house and muni bonds start to act like Pets.com stock,well you can see why investors have become a little unnerved of late. TAGS: VCVLXVILPX Add new comment Watch Out Your Stocks Are Down More Than The S&P 500. Admit It. Submitted by Jonas Ferris on Thu, 10/09/2008 - 17:03. The stock market is having its worst stretch since the 1930s, but as bad as it is, foreign markets across the board are faring much worse. Those who have viewed MAXfunds' fund data pages or Our Favorite Funds lists from time to time over the last year may have wondered why most emerging market funds have negative forecasts for future performance and lousy metrics (or why we sold our emerging market fund picks from our Powerfund Portfolios in recent years). Long time MAXfunds.com readers will remember we had similar negative ratings on most tech funds in 2000. The rationale then and today was the same.Our fund metrics are designed to help fund investors avoid funds that are likely to fall - the very funds attracting the most money after posting big returns. Most fund ratings and rankings only direct attention to the overvalued - they encourage performance chasing.The reason we have used this anti-performance chasing methodology is to help you avoid the inevitable result of buying into popular funds and categories: below-market returns. An article that appeared this week in the Wall Street Journal describes the carnage experienced by the throngs of fund investors who flocked into international markets in recent years. The only difference between this after-the-fact article and the ones published in 2002 is then it was tech and growth funds that were falling faster than the S&P 500 - the very funds that brought in the most money before the drop.The average diversified foreign stock fund, which invests primarily in developed markets, is down 33% since the start of the year through Friday, versus a 25.5% decline for the average diversified U.S. stock fund, according to Morningstar Inc.It's even worse in less-established foreign markets. The average emerging-markets stock fund, which includes funds dedicated to China, India and Latin America, is down 42.5% so far this year.This is a sharp reversal from the heady gains of recent years. In 2007, the average emerging-market fund gained 40%, while the average foreign developed-market fund gained 12%.On Monday, some European markets had their worst decline in 20 years. Britain's FTSE 100 index fell 8%, while France's benchmark CAC-40 index fell 9%, the largest one-day declines for both markets at least since 1987. Also on Monday, stock trading was halted repeatedly in Russia and in Brazil, where shares registered declines of 19% and 5.4%, respectively. Asian markets fell as much as 6%, but they have been hit worse than European markets since the start of the year.Mutual-fund investors have piled into foreign markets in recent years partly to diversify their portfolios. Some $463 billion in net contributions poured into these funds from 2003 to 2007, boosting assets to $1.48 trillion at the end of 2007, according to Morningstar."The more things change, the more they stay the same...LINK Add new comment Subprime Woes Market To Politicians: Thanks, But No Thanks... Submitted by Jonas Ferris on Tue, 10/07/2008 - 01:19. Remember last week when the Dow fell 777 because politicians didn't pass the Banker Bailout Bill (BBB)? Well earlier today the Dow was down over 800. Worse, this was 1,300 from the market peak last Friday, around the time the bill passed. My government spent almost one trillion dollars and all I got was this crummy market! For those looking for a bright side, consider many emerging market funds are down 50% from the peaks; heck Russia fell around 20% in a day and is now down 65% from highs. And Russia didn't even have a housing bubble! They did have a commodity bubble but we'll save that tale for another day.This makes one wonder, what would have happened if no rescue package was passed? The non-U.S. government bond market - the area the bailout is targeting - is not fairing much better.The trouble is panic has set in. Not just with investors, but consumers. For the first year or so of the unwinding of the Great Real Estate bubble, experts were sure it was somehow going to be contained - that trillions of instant wealth could just disappear with nobody noticing (except the banks then lent money against the phantom gains). Well if you've been to a car dealership lately, people have started to notice.While we don't think the Dow under 10,000 is such a bad place to be compared to government bonds, CDs, or real estate, if this downward spiral continues HGTV's "My House Is Worth What?" will be renamed "My House Is Worth What!" Add new comment Subprime Woes Bailout Delayed, Free Market Returns With Vengeance Submitted by Jonas Ferris on Tue, 09/30/2008 - 17:50. Congress Killed the bailout. Everybody is mad at somebody. The bailout is too big. Too small. Doesn't spread the wealth. Will hurt taxpayers. Will lead to more bad behavior. This list goes on. In this upside down world, Republicans want big government solutions to market problems while Democrats want to redistribute wealth to bankers. Everybody has a bone to pick on the bailout yet nobody can explain exactly how $700 billion stops the market madness. What did the stock market think about the delay in the $700 billion fix? Dow down -777. Yesterday, even lucky numbers meant bad luck. With big banks dropping like flies (A.T.B.T.F. almost to big to fail...) and every kind of debt with more default risk than U.S. government bonds going through bouts of panic selling (even munis! ) its time to reflect back and remember one thing: this is all the result of the Great Real Estate Bubble.While there is certainly much blame to go around, the biggest villain was a simple widespread belief that homes were a perpetual upward motion machine.Like everybody, we have our own ideas on how to 'save' humanity from our greatest bubble yet (bonus feature - it doesn't require creating another bigger bubble somewhere else). But who cares what we think about the bubble anymore... All you need to know is there are only three parties that can take the fall as trillions in phantom real estate wealth evaporates: 1) Home Owners 2) Lenders (this includes investors in mortgage debt, not just jet-set bank execs) 3) TaxpayersGovernment polices and bailouts can shift the burden between the big three, but all will take a hit. Without magically re-inflating the housing bubble, there is no way all groups can come out unscathed. The best way to start crafting a bailout package is determine how you want to spread the multi-trillion dollar burden.And remember when you go around finger pointing, those that live in glass houses shouldn't have taken out a pick-a-payment home equity loan to renovate their kitchen with stainless steel appliances and a granite counter top because someone on HGTV said repeatedly it adds value beyond the cost of the renovation... Add new comment Insider Info Muni Money Market Yields Skyrocket Submitted by Jonas Ferris on Fri, 09/26/2008 - 01:30.  Money market funds have quickly taken center stage in the real-estate-bubble-created credit crisis. Last week we saw 'safe' money market funds slip under a buck a share. A true run-on-the-bank-style panic was averted by (yet) another government scheme to calm the jittery (who are mostly institutional investors incidentally). Around $150 billion flew the money market fund coop early last week before Uncle Sam said 'keep buying increasingly questionable commercial paper, we'll pick up the losses!" Outflows dropped to just a few billion a day.Now we're seeing tax free municipal money market fund yields skyrocket - which could be a good thing for investors. Hopefully. Tax free money market funds own debt issued by state and local governments - not corporations like the now defunct Lehman Brothers. Traditionally this is a very low risk investment, but then traditionally banks aren't failing every few days as a twenty trillion dollar real estate bubble deflates.Today truly 'safe' money market funds that own government debt yield less than 2% (and falling). This below-inflation yield is also taxable. Municipal money market funds traditionally yield a little less than taxable money market funds, but can yield a little more after taxes to those in high tax brackets. Today this relationship is out the window. Now the unemployed will even earn a better after-tax yield in muni funds. A lot better. So much better that something just can't be right.On Vanguard.com today, yields ranged from 1.52% for the taxable Treasury Money Market fund, to over 5% for certain single-state muni funds that let residents avoid state and federal tax on income. For those in a high tax bracket in Pennsylvania, this is like an 8%+ taxable yield on 'safe' money. Similar yield spreads can be seen on Fidelity and other money market fund manager's web sites.How did this happen? Looking at Investment Company Institute data, in recent days money has been leaving muni money market funds faster than from taxable funds - a grave concern considering there is only about 15% as much money in muni funds. This, plus general problems in the municipal bond market partially because of Lehman's failure, has led to skyrocketing yields. Is it safe? As we noted last year, even good money market funds can fail and break the buck if there is panic selling and nobody is left to buy the portfolio holdings - regardless of the their soundness. The same is true for municipal funds. However - and this is a big however - the government is also insuring muni money market funds from losses (according to the ICI). The coverage only includes those who bought in before September 19th, so those grandfathered in now have a 5% tax free federally insured investment while those buying in today are probably taking a risk (but if the flows of funds turns positive that risk will be negligible). Investors can tell if flows turn positive - the yields will fall back to earth. Enjoy it while it lasts! TAGS: Vanguard 1 comment Watch Out Money Market Fund(s) Fails Submitted by Jonas Ferris on Wed, 09/17/2008 - 17:04. The dominoes are falling fast on Wall Street. It's not just a bunch of hedge funds that lent money to semi-defunct Lehman Brothers - mom and pop mutual funds are owed billions. On Tuesday the first money market mutual fund in over a decade announced it has 'broke the buck'. This collateral damage from Lehman is likely why Uncle Sam is now writing blank checks to AIG.You may want to refill your Ambien prescription before you read this New York Times article about the mess:The announcement was made by the Primary Fund, which had almost $65 billion in assets at the end of May. It is part of the Reserve Fund, a group whose founder helped invent the money market fund more than 30 years ago.The fund said that because the value of some investments had fallen, customers now have only 97 cents for each dollar they had invested.This is only the second time in history that a money market fund has 'broken the buck' — that is, reported a share’s value was less than a dollar.This year alone, big banks and fund management companies have pledged more than $10 billion to rescue affiliated money funds that were caught holding mortgage market securities that were deteriorating rapidly in value...The Primary Fund reported that, until further notice, it would delay paying redemptions to customers for up to seven days, as permitted under mutual fund law. That delay will not apply to debit card transactions, automated clearinghouse transactions or checks written against the assets of the Primary Fund, provided that the transactions do not exceed $10,000 from single or affiliated investors...Several industry analysts said on Tuesday, however, that the Reserve Fund’s action came after its Primary Fund was hit by heavy redemption demands that intensified the impact of the Lehman losses."Of course, the fund company trade association assures us that money market funds are sound... LINK ...read the rest of this article» Add new comment Investing Advice Wall Street Worries Submitted by James Skahan on Wed, 09/17/2008 - 16:44. Well, these are interesting days on Wall Street to say the least. We aren't going to pretend we know exactly how things are going to shake out (though we've been commenting on the dangers of the real estate bubble for years), but SmartMoney has some basic, sound advice for frazzled fund investors that could help ease the pain during the next market meltdown.If, indeed, you haven't been able to step out of the way of these events, here's some advice to follow before the next downturn comes along (and, by all accounts, the next one may be sooner rather than later). First, don't make any knee-jerk reactions. If you think you can stave off further loses with a couple of trades you're fooling yourself (and probably selling at the worst possible time). If you are living off your retirement account, you may want to reconsider how much you are pulling out of it for household expenses. At least one study has shown that you can severely cut into the life of a retirement account by tapping it at its lowest balance.You should also check to see how your funds react to these big downturns. We like the idea of a diversified portfolio in these situations. In concept, at least, a diversified portfolio should smooth out any wild rides. If, say, your portfolio of large-cap stocks takes a sharper dive than the overall market you may want to re-evaluate it, especially if you realize you can't stomach these ups and downs.Finally, every investor needs to sit down after days like these and do a gut check. Once the dust settles there will be some prime buying opportunities for those with cash and the nerve to put it to use... Indeed, last week we polled some fund managers about where they saw bargains in the financial-services industry. This morning one of our interviewees, Anton Schutz, who runs Burnham Financial Services (BURFX), reiterated on CNBC what he told us last week: 'There will be great opportunities.'"LINK Add new comment Investing Advice Target Date Drawbacks Submitted by James Skahan on Wed, 09/03/2008 - 21:55. Alex Anderson at Forbes does a nice job highlighting what we see as the major drawbacks of target date mutual funds, the popular funds in which portfolio managers slowly move from more aggressive to less risky as the fund's target date (and presumably investors' retirement) approaches.First, within the equity oriented target funds, the portfolio consists largely of mutual funds. Management fees piggyback on both the target-date fund and the underlying mutual funds. Unless the sponsoring fund company is committed to low fees (like Vanguard), the total fees associated with the newer version of target-date funds can be double those of other funds.Second, many target-date fund sponsors upped their average equity exposures during the recent bull market--probably in an effort to juice up investment returns. This has been unfortunate of late, as the bear market has hurt the recent performance of those target-date funds with heavy stock allocations.Finally, the newer target funds have a 'one size fits all' approach. There are many valid reasons why two investors with the exact same retirement date should have dramatically different asset allocations. Perhaps there are differences in health and life expectancy, in risk tolerances and in basic financial circumstances.The major drawback of the bond-oriented target date funds is reinvestment risk. Should investors receive their lump sum payments at a time of inflated equity prices and/or low interest rates, they would have limited opportunity to reinvest the lump sum proceeds advantageously. A second drawback is the fact that the investment structure is completely bonds.Historically, equities have provided higher returns than bonds over the long term, and some portfolios with a conservative mix of both bonds and equities can actually be less risky than those that are completely bonds."While a quality target date fund is a good choice for smaller portfolios and set-it-and-forget it types, they just aren't a substitute for a low cost portfolio of funds specifically tailored to an investor's retirement goals. LINK Add new comment Watch Out The Seven Percent Dissolution Submitted by James Skahan on Tue, 08/26/2008 - 20:42. The Wall Street Journal reports that Vanguard's so-called managed payout funds, which promise a 7% of principle distribution per year to investors, are delivering mostly phantom income...just four months after Vanguard's funds launched, their performance reveals one very big problem with how such funds are structured: to meet their payout obligations, the funds are dipping into principal.Seventy-seven percent of the payouts from Distribution Focus Fund this year will actually come from the fund's capital, and it's a similar story for Vanguard's other two managed payout funds. For Growth and Distribution Fund that figure is 71%, while 63% of distributions from Growth Focus Fund have been taken from capital.'People are getting their money back as a distribution,' said Dan Wiener, editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors. 'These aren't coming from dividends or interest from holdings, or even short-term capital gains. These funds just haven't been making money.'"The problem of course is that during rough market conditions these funds simply don't perform well enough to keep making payments without eating into principle. Since these fund's monthly payouts are set based on expected long term returns of the fund,when underlying investment performance doesn't live up to the payout goals, you are dipping into principal to 'earn' your 7%. Investors who bought into these Vanguard funds thinking they would be getting a steady, predictable stream of income have so far achieved this goal, but at the expense of their actual investment declining in value along the way - much like taking out 7% a year from your own portfolio as it sinks with the market.Next year we expect Vanguard to lower the distribution to be 7% of the new lower fund price (which means those who bought in at launch will no longer be receiving 7% on their original investment). The current artificial yield is actual around 7.8% to those buying today because the fund price has fallen but the payout is fixed for now.Bottom line, the only true yields above 7% are in distressed or non investment grade debt. The real yield on Vanguard Managed Payout Growth Focus Fund Investor Shares (VPGFX) is around 2.5%. Anything else - even higher yield stocks and REITs - will require some sort of liquidation of assets to generate that yield - hopefully after a capital gain but lately that as not been the case.We (of course) predicted this outcome ("It’s unlikely Vanguard can create a fund delivering big 7% payouts with principal preservation and stability.") before the fund was launched.LINK Add new comment Watch Out Buy High, Sell Low, Repeat Until Nausea Sets In Submitted by Jonas Ferris on Thu, 08/14/2008 - 23:42.  Throughout the years we've written many articles and highlighted scholarly research showing how investors often buy high after big runs in a fund (or stock) only to sell after a sharp drop. This pattern is why fund investors tend to underperform the market and is the foundation of our contrarian rating system and methodology that tries to focus attention away from the hot and towards the not.Statistics aside, a graphical depiction of the "mind of an investor" is making the rounds on the internet. It may not be something you will find in the Wall Street Journal (or impress Edward Tufte...), but it is well worth a peak for a humorous look into the actual thinking that may go on in the head of a performance-chasing investor.LINK Add new comment123456789…next ›last »  COPYRIGHT © 2008 MAXFUNDS.COM |
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