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Today's News• StatShot: What is the $700 billlion bailout being spent on? • Cramer says SELL! • Question: Why can't the fed go to a negative interest rate? • Steve Keen's causes and solutions for financial mania • Six found dead in Porter Ranch home • Newsflash: Deflation may be next threat! • IT's ALL GONE! (All of the bullion is Gone!) • HOW ONE iTuliper IS INVESTED? • What's happening to stem 'disaster' and 'financial crisis'? • De-constructing Westerns with Michael Hudson Today's Select($) News• Deflation: the death spiral? • 10-year US Treasury Note is not looking healthy • Gold and Silver Lease Rates in Backwardation • Roubini bowl vertigo • Rate cut? When? • Axa CEO says infrastructure sector offers $53 trillion opportunity • 2008 Circuit-Breaker Levels • Get the Book to Krugman ASAP! • U.S. Senate votes to extend solar, R&D tax credits • BullionVault curiosity Latest Select($) Janszen Commentaries• Extrapolation Scenario • Time, at last, to short the market • Time at last to short commercial real estate • DJIA falls 7% while gold rises 14%: DJIA/gold ratio reversion continues • What to do about possible capital controls? • US exchange rate and capital controls or bust? • FIRE Economy and the Dollar Ratchet • Housing Bubble Correction Update: Here comes the jobs crash (Part II) • WRONG! The gold price will not be US$275 in 2007 • Peak Cheap Oil Diaries: Anatomy of a collapsing government sponsored oil anti-bubble
Guest Column When Currency Becomes a Fiat for Oxygen, All Breathing Must Leave the Room  October 10, 2008, iTulipSomething is afoot that, so far, skirts the ken of our most sprawling macro-economic theories. Like the ultimate exogeneity or game-changing black swan, the best evidence of a dawning paradigm is that few things make sense through the old glasses. As T. S. Eliot remarked of great poetry (and I paraphrase), its arrival is felt before its impact is understood. In this instance, we will regret mistaking a lack of understanding for a lack of arrival. More …
Amazon.com Widgets
Paulson Bank Rescue Proposal Is `Crazy,' O'Neill  October 2, 2008, iTulip October 1, 2008 (Bloomberg News)Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill said the $700 billion bank-rescue proposal under negotiation in Washington is “crazy,” with potentially “awful” consequences for the world’s largest economy.“Doesn’t this seem like lunacy to you?” said O’Neill, who was President George W. Bush’s first Treasury chief, from 2001 to 2002, in a telephone interview today. “The consequences of it are unbelievably bad in terms of public intrusion into the private sector.”“Is anybody thinking there?” asked O’Neill, who also served as deputy budget director in the Ford administration. “It’s too late, it’s not going to make any difference, and it’s aggravating as hell when there’s a better idea and you can’t even get it in play,” he said, recognizing little success so far in pitching his own proposal.AntiSpin: “Is anybody thinking there?” Is that a rhetorical question? Of course they’re not thinking. They’re the US Congress. So now we get the worst of both worlds. Government interference in markets and a Depression because this plan can’t possibly work. We like the King plan. It gets money into the hands of small businesses. More …
BoA to close credit cards for approximately 60% of customers? “I work in Credit Department at BoA (Senior Level Credit Analysist Boa Bldg 3rd fl, Char, NC). We just received memo indicating that all BoA credit cards are being closed as of 10/1. Credit score and income do not matter, all accounts are closed as of 10/1.” Executive VP Bank of America“This is true, but not as bad as he/she says. We are closing accounts, but only ones with credit scores under 750. We will reopen cards within a year as long as crisis lessens.” - J.mcmanus / VP Credit Dept BOAiReport Sept. 28, 2008AntiSpin: We do not have independent confirmation but if true the event is significant – the number of credit card holders with scores under 750 is 60% percent of the population. More …
To: TRUSTED PERSON Subject: REQUEST FOR URGENT BUSINESS RELATIONSHIPDEAR AMERICAN:I NEED TO ASK YOU TO SUPPORT AN URGENT SECRET BUSINESS RELATIONSHIP WITH A TRANSFER OF FUNDS OF GREAT MAGNITUDE.I AM MINISTRY OF THE TREASURY OF THE REPUBLIC OF AMERICA. MY COUNTRY HAS HAD CRISIS THAT HAS CAUSED THE NEED FOR LARGE TRANSFER OF FUNDS OF 800 BILLION DOLLARS US. IF YOU WOULD ASSIST ME IN THIS TRANSFER, IT WOULD BE MOST PROFITABLE TO YOU. More …
In The Eye Of The Hurricane  September 19, 2008, iTulipThe financial crisis is over. The economic crisis has begun.by FinsterThe “solution” reverberating from Washington to Wall Street, amid the celebratory atmosphere in the financial markets, must be put in perspective. It represents yet another massive wealth transfer from the United States to far flung corners of the globe. More …
Credit risk pollution Superfund is born, market soars  September 18, 2008, iTulipApril 2006 in “Risk Pollution: Financial Markets Polluted with Risk” I compared the era of unregulated lending to the period of the unregulated chemical industry. The latter polluted the environment with chemical toxins and the former with toxic debt. The article contains the first use of the word “toxic” that you will find on the internet in connection with mortgage and other debt.In that article I made the following forecast:In truth, no one knows who will be left holding the bag when defaults on loans made using these innovations occur. But we can be fairly certain it won’t be the institutions that made the money selling them. Most likely, it will be the same folks that paid for the Super Fund projects that cleaned up after the chemical industry — you and I.And here it is, two years later, a credit toxins Superfund paid for by you and I. More …
China paper urges new currency order after "financial tsunami"  September 17, 2008, iTulipWe’ve been tracking the standoff of Economic M.A.D. between China and the US since April 2006. After little apparent stress on the surface of the relationship, the events we anticipated are now occurring with alarming speed. We expected China to make its currency move at some point in this crisis but not this soon.China paper urges new currency order after “financial tsunami”Sept. 17, 2008 BEIJING (Reuters) - Threatened by a “financial tsunami,” the world must consider building a financial order no longer dependent on the United States, a leading Chinese state newspaper said on Wednesday. AntiSpin: We had inside information two months ago that China was in discussions with other central banks to develop an alternative currency regime in the face of the ongoing dissolution of the dollar-based system. This is the first trial balloon, floated at arm’s length from officialdom by a Chinese government sanctioned academic, much the way sanctioned academics in the US are brought out to propose policies that are poplar with the ruling party. It may be followed by a statement by a government official directly connected to the Chinese government. More …
Fed Funds spread signals crash  September 15, 2008, iTulipThe last time the Fed Funds target rate got this out of line with the effective rate was in 1987, and from a base of over 6% not 2%. On a percentage basis, at three times the target rate the spread is unprecedented. It happened today.On Friday Sept. 12, the effective funds rate was 2.1 percent, only 10 basis points over the target rate. Today the effective rate is three times the target rate. More …
Massive new Gosbank USA formed, market soars  September 8, 2008, iTulip Today the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac merged with the Federal Reserve Bank, the US Treasury Department, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase to form Gosbank USA. The DJIA soared 280 points on the news Capping a year of crisis in the credit markets and global financial system that led to the nationalization of banks in Europe and England, the US today consolidated and merged ownership of the nation’s largest banks under co-chairmen former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and former Treasury Secretary and ex-head of investment banking giant Goldman Sachs Henry Paulson.The headquarters of Gosbank USA is located on Wall Street, the new administrative center for several recently created US government planning authorities, including Gosfin USA, the State Central Financial Regulatory Authority, and Gosrec USA, the State Central Housing Reconstruction Authority.AntiSpin: Actually, this is a reprint of our April Fool’s posting this year: Massive new Gosbank USA formed, market soars. Hey, what can we say? We had a “feeling” this was going to happen, and we were off on the stock price by only 10 points – 290 vs 280 – but give us a break; the forecast was over five months ago. If you think we’re kidding about the rest of it, read it again. More …
The Fed's Maginot Line  October 11, 2008, iTulipCentral bank intervention and inflation: One thing leads to another A popular misconception holds that central bank interventions in banking crises and financial markets panics in the form of liquidity injections are in and of themselves inflationary. Not so. These policies indicate a path decided, a choice in an economic policy fork in the road – a trap, if you will. We first identified the Federal Reserve’s “inflationary decision making process” back in 1999. Sadly it is neither difficult to discern nor complicated to explain. It is a well worn path taken by a government that find itself backed into a corner after a series of bad bad decisions, unable to finance expenses, lacking the will to reduce them, abandoned by allies due to economic or other troubles at home, the printing press its last defense of political obligations. More …
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 Twin Focus Quarterly Commentary - Q4 2008 (Part 2)  October 11, 2008, iTulipQuarterly Commentary - Q4 2008 (Part 2)The Paulson Plan: Objectives, Pros, Cons & AlternativesDespite all the initiatives taken by the government, the credit markets have been deteriorating at an alarming rate witnessed by the credit spreads and complete lack of credit availability. As a result, the two principal problems facing the banking system is: 1) capital destruction tied to declining asset quality and lack of demand for risk assets; and 2) the drying up of liquidity during the crisis due to the lack of transparency in the banking system’s exposure to risky mortgage assets. The fund flows that make our economy work are threatened by a lack of confidence in the value of mortgage assets and financial firms are extremely hesitant to purchase assets of lend money with one another to fund the system.In response to the continued malaise, Treasury Secretary Paulson announced the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) designed to resuscitate the ailing credit markets. He identified that the fundamental problem in the US economy was the illiquid mortgage assets that have lost value due to the slumping housing markets. These toxic assets are choking off the flow of credit that is vital…(more…$ubscription)
Poll: Post-crash iTulipers' portfolio condition  October 9, 2008, iTulipThe DJIA is off 4166 points (31%) since our Dec. 27, 2008 Debt Deflation Bear Market ($ubscription) call – our first since March 2000 – and 1656 points, more than 16%, since our Sept. 15 Fed Funds spread signals crash call, our second such call in ten years.As a follower of iTulip, how is your portfolio holding up through the market carnage? Did you dodge the bullet? Current count, 66% of iTuliper’s are flat to up 20% or more, 13% are down less than 10%, 21% are down more than 10%. More …
Extrapolation Scenario Update: USA's Lost Decade  October 8, 2008, iTulipHurtling toward the ZIRP MountainsFebruary 2008 when I first posted this thread to track the interest rate path to the zero interest rate policy zone, I stated: To get a handle on where we think the stock, bond, and commodity prices are going over the next few years, I’m starting this thread to explore one of two future scenarios. The first is the Extrapolation Scenario. It assumes a post credit bubble “Lost Decade” similar to the Japanese debt deflation “Lost decade” but inflationary versus deflationary, due to the US net debtor versus net creditor position, or a Bust/Boom Scenario where the US debt deflation is abbreviated by a Next Bubble in Alternative Energy and Infrastructure.The most likely future scenario at any particular time in history is the Extrapolation Scenario for the simple reason that most of the time the people and processes operating within the institutions that created the current situation are likely to remain there and make similar decisions in the future as they have in the past. Today the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate by half a point to 1.5%. As I stated in “Why the Fed can’t lower rates” I do not believe that targeting the price of money does much good in very high or low inflation environments, and it certainly moves the US closer to an environment of zero interest rate policy. Here we update and compare our forecasts from February and see where we need to make adjustments to our assumptions. More ($ Subscription) …
Guest Column Global stock markets re-enter earth atmosphere after years in outer space  October 8, 2008, iTulipStock Prices Returning To NormalAmid all the wailing and gnashing of teeth about plunging stock prices, amid the strenuous efforts of governments and banks the world over to stop the carnage – $7.2 trillion in market capitalization has been lost so far in US markets alone – there is some very good news for investors. Stock prices are getting back to normal. More …
Weekly Commentary Confusion reigns: A crisis-driven global rush to dollar liquidity is not deflation  October 7, 2008, iTulipIn the crisis stage of a debt deflation, defined by Fisher and Minsky as a reduction in debt financing, credit and money market panic causes banks to stop lending and borrowing from each other, pay off existing loans to shore up their balance sheets, and build reserves against expected future losses. This creates a short term spike in demand for the currency in which the debt is denominated, in the current case dollars. To the uninitiated, this looks like monetary deflation. A strengthening currency and falling interest rates also characterizes monetary deflation. That can in time produce commodity price deflation, so the confusion is understandable. But don’t be fooled. More …
Twin Focus Quarterly Commentary: Q4 2008 (Part 1) October 6, 2008, iTulipOver the past quarter, we have witnessed unprecedented events in global capital markets. Fear and panic hit noise-bleed levels and investors continue to unwind positions and de-leverage. The unraveling of the financial crisis has wreaked havoc in global equity markets. Stocks have plummeted and seem to have completely disconnected from fundamentals, while credit markets remain laden with land mines and sink holes, as investors seek safer ground. Questions that appear to be in the hearts and minds of global investors are “What is next to fall?” and “Where do we hide?” (more…)
Guest Column The Real Great Depression  October 6, 2008, iTulipThe depression of 1929 is the wrong model for the current economic crisisBy SCOTT REYNOLDS NELSONEditor’s Note: I caught up with Professor Scott Nelson at his office at the College of William and Mary in Williamsburg, Virginia last week. As I write my book on the economy and where it’s headed I’m always glad to talk to a historian to get a professional’s perspective and share notes. - Eric JanszenAs a historian who works on the 19th century, I have been reading my newspaper with a considerable sense of dread. While many commentators on the recent mortgage and banking crisis have drawn parallels to the Great Depression of 1929, that comparison is not particularly apt. Two years ago, I began research on the Panic of 1873, an event of some interest to my colleagues in American business and labor history but probably unknown to everyone else. But as I turn the crank on the microfilm reader, I have been hearing weird echoes of recent events. More …
Still no deflation: Disinflation then lots of inflation  October 5, 2008, iTulipAs we explained years ago, the Fed has a bottomless bag of tricks to use to fight deflation. When deflation inevitably threatens, the Fed planned to continuously change the rules of the game to fight it, and so they have.You did not need enormous powers of foresight to make this call. All you needed was a browser and an Adobe Acrobat reader on your PC and a strong stomach to read the Fed’s deflation play book (pdf) published by the Fed in 2003. More …
Inside the Whirlpool: Interview with Dr. Peter Warburton  October 3, 2008, iTulipEric Janszen follow-up interview with Dr. Peter Warburton, director of Economic Perspectives in LondonDr. Warburton is the author of Debt And Delusion . Published in 1999, the book exposes serious flaws in the development of the global financial system starting in the early 1990s. Nine years later his scholarly analysis and forecast are, sadly, coming to pass. We caught up with Dr. Warburton in London today.EJ: Is it too late [for bailouts] anyway? Has the patient gone brain dead in the two weeks that have passed while we’ve stood over the body arguing about whether we should try to revive him?PW: It’s too late to prevent the long tail of economic hardship. Perhaps the system can be restarted with a breathtakingly massive injection of liquidity, say, in the trillions and all at once, no holds barred, not piecemeal as has been done so far. That will at least address the liquidity problem. The solvency problem will remain, however. That is daunting because the securities in question were never designed to be priced before maturity. They don’t have a market price before that. Assigning one to them is going to create unfair advantages for one asset holder over another. The government is better off simply buying the underlying assets. More ($ Subscription) …
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March 2008: Eric Janszen's Harper's Magazine cover article "The Next Bubble" is now available for free here.
In the Press
 February 7, 2008, iTulipSee Eric Janszen Interviewed on CNBC today January 25, 2008 at 2:20 PM Eastern. “Street Signs” covers the top stories of the day with Erin Burnett.Discuss the interview here. We’ll post the video later for those who miss seeing it live. More … January 22, 2008, iTulipEric Janszen Interview on NPR: Recession? Stagflation? Bubble Deflation? A Look At The State of Our Economy Steve Scher interviews Eric Janszen on KUOW public radio in Seattle on Tuesday, January 22 at 9:20AM to 10:00AM Pacific.Guests: Peter S. Goodman has been a national economic writer for the New York Times‘ business section since October 2007. Previously, he was the Shanghai–based Asian economic correspondent for The Washington Post, where he spent a decade.Eric Janszen is the founder and president of iTulip, Inc. He formerly served as managing director of the venture firm Osborn Capital, CEO of AutoCell, Inc., and Bluesocket, Inc., and entrepreneur in residence for Trident Capital. His article “The Next Bubble: Priming the Markets for Tomorrow’s Big Crash” appears in the February 2008 issue of Harper’s Magazine. More …iTulip aStore May 23, 2007, iTulipNovember 2006: Money Matters host Gary Goldberg interviews Eric Janszen about the new book America’s Bubble Economy. May 23, 2007, iTulip November 2006: Barron’s Preview of America’s Bubble Economy in interview with co-author Eric JanszenMore press...
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/* this.container_styles = "background-image:url(images/sample2_bg.gif);"; */
this.item_styles = "padding-left:5px;color:#000000; font-weight:bold; text-decoration:none; font-family:Arial; font-size:16px; border-style:none;border-width:0px;";
this.item_link_styles = "color:#333333; font-weight:normal; text-decoration:none; font-family:Arial; font-size:13px; border-style:none;border-width:0px;";
this.item_link_hover_styles = "color:#000000; font-weight:normal; text-decoration:none; font-family:Arial; font-size:13px; border-style:none;border-width:0px;";
}
_uacct = "UA-588206-1";
urchinTracker();
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